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Chinese equity issuance surged 119% year-on-year to reach US$16.8 billion in Q1 2025, driven by eased regulations in the tech sector. The Hang Seng Index has risen 21% this year, while the MSCI China Index's P/E ratio stands at 11.7, significantly lower than its U.S. counterparts, suggesting attractive valuations. Investor sentiment is shifting positively towards China, with a growing presence of long-only investors.
JPMorgan analysts predict that Russian stocks are unlikely to rejoin MSCI global equity indexes before 2027, dismissing the two-year timeline starting in June as overly optimistic. Russia was removed from these indexes in March 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine. Despite rising interest in Russian assets, the geopolitical situation remains tense, with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement.
Fund managers have made a record shift away from US stocks, with allocations dropping 40 percentage points to a net underweight of 23%, the lowest since June 2023. This shift follows a significant decline in investor sentiment, attributed to a weakening economy and trade war tensions, as the MSCI AC World index fell 3.1% this year. Cash allocations rose sharply, indicating a move towards safety, while expectations for global economic growth have soured, with 63% of investors anticipating a downturn in the next year.
UBS has a positive outlook on the financial services sector, favoring Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as its top pick due to favorable energy volume trends and a revised mortgage outlook. The firm also sees potential in MarketAxess and Tradeweb for their roles in the shift to electronic trading, despite competitive challenges. Additionally, MSCI is highlighted for anticipated growth in sales trends.
UBS has a positive outlook on the financial services sector, favoring Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) due to strong energy volume trends and a revised mortgage outlook. The bank also sees potential in MarketAxess and Tradeweb for bond market electronification, despite competitive challenges. MSCI is highlighted for expected growth in information services, while MarketAxess faces price target adjustments from analysts following mixed financial performance.
UBS Asset Management and DWS have renamed numerous ESG ETFs following MSCI's rebranding of over 100 ESG indices to comply with updated European and UK sustainability naming regulations. DWS will implement stricter sustainability criteria and exclusions for certain sectors in its ETFs, while UBS will remove "ESG" and "SDG" from several fund names. These changes are set to take effect on February 3, 2025, aligning with new regulatory requirements.
UBS Group AG advises shorting India's rupee and reducing stock exposure due to a structural economic slowdown, exacerbated by potential challenges from a higher US yield environment. The Indian economy faces long-term issues like declining credit growth and export competitiveness, contributing to significant stock market losses and a depreciating rupee. Recent trends show Indian stocks have lost nearly $500 billion in value, marking the worst start to a year since 2016, while bond outflows are at their fastest since 2020.
UBS Group AG advises investors to short India's rupee and reduce exposure to its stocks, citing a structural economic slowdown that transcends cyclical factors. The bank highlights challenges from rising US yields, a high debt service-to-revenue ratio, and significant market losses, with Indian stocks down nearly $500 billion recently. The Reserve Bank of India faces a dilemma over interest rates as it seeks to stimulate growth amid declining foreign investment and capital outflows.
London strategist Garthwaite sees no bubble forming in equities, predicting a 7% rise in the MSCI world equity index by year-end, measured in US dollars. However, he believes this trend may not apply to the New York Stock Exchange.
UBS Group AG is advising investors to short the Indian rupee and reduce stock holdings, citing a structural slowdown in India's $4 trillion economy. Key factors include declining credit growth, foreign direct investment, and export competitiveness, exacerbated by high US yields and significant market losses, with Indian stocks down nearly $500 billion this year. The rupee has reached record lows against the US dollar, making it Asia's worst-performing currency, while bond outflows are at their fastest since 2020.
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